Top 50 Players Rankings: #50-41 & Honorable Mentions

If you’ve been keeping up with my social media and blog activity recently, you’d know that I recently ranked the ten best players at each position, which you can find here. While this was an imperfect practice that you can certainly disagree with, I believe I poured in a lot of time and resources into finalizing these lists, creating fairly useful positional rankings. By looking at track record, recent success, age and some of the best readily available statistics (fWAR, wRC+, FIP, etc.), my lists ended up pretty close to what I envisioned.

With that being said, I pride myself on being the most knowledgeable person I can be when it comes to baseball. After taking a bit of a writing hiatus recently during the holiday season, I not only picked up some classic baseball books (The New Bill James Historical Abstract and Moneyball) but also went back over my lists to see how I liked them. With this reflection, I continued to learn that the study of baseball analysis will never be perfect and my goal was to continue to further my baseball knowledge.

That led me here today to kick off my next series: ranking the top 50 players in baseball. What better way to take some of the knowledge and experience I had recently than to implement it with a list ranking the best of the best. I will acknowledge right now that my top 50 rankings will not fully reflect my positional rankings as I really wanted to study each individual player more by looking at more useful and predictive stats.

I will still utilize many of the statistics I used previously (fWAR, FIP) but what I wanted to do was also incorporate some other statistics that I felt had more value evaluating player performance and predicting player performance. By utilizing resources from websites like Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant (especially the newly updated Defensive Metrics), I really believe I put all the best available statistics to use in this exercise.

For each position player, I will list these statistics:

• Average combined 2019 WAR from Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus
• 2019 DRC+ (best evaluator for batter performance; similar to wRC+ with 100 being league average)
• 2017-2019 fWAR (Still believe that fWAR is the strongest WAR measure and wanted to use it for track record)
• 2020 Steamer Projection (Steamer is more conservative than ZIPS with projections, something I tend to lean towards)

For each pitcher, I will list these statistics:

• Average combined 2019 WAR from Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus
• 2019 SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average has had better predictive value in recent years than FIP, xFIP, ERA)
• 2017-2019 fWAR (Still believe that fWAR is the strongest WAR measure and wanted to use it for track record)
• 2020 Steamer Projection (Steamer is more conservative than ZIPS with projections, something I tend to lean towards)

With that out of the way, let’s get into this. Here is the first batch of players on my top 50 list, ranking players #50-41. Before that is a list of honorable mentions who just missed the cut.

Honorable Mentions

• Charlie Morton (TBR), Pete Alonso (NYM), Paul DeJong (STL), Shohei Ohtani (LAA), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Paul Goldschmidt (STL), Justin Turner (LAD), Jeff McNeil (NYM), Andrelton Simmons (LAA), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP), Ramon Laureano (OAK), Michael Conforto (NYM), J.D. Martinez (BOS), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Max Kepler (MIN), Joey Gallo (TEX), Luis Severino (NYY), Aaron Nola (PHI)

50. Yoan Moncada 3B

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 24
• 2019 Average WAR: 5.13
• 2019 DRC+: 123
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 8.9
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 3.9 fWAR

Moncada delivered his long-anticipated breakout season in 2019, posting a 123 DRC+ and 5 Outs Above Average in 132 games. Moncada is an absolute freak athlete who ranked in the 97th percentile in exit velocity, 87th percentile in Outs Above Average (OOA) and 72nd percentile in sprint speed. While Moncada certainly won’t sustain his .406 BABIP in 2020, his ability to crush baseballs and run well may make him a guy capable of running a BABIP in the .350-.380 range on an annual basis. If Moncada replicates his 2019 season, expect him to fly up this board next year.

49. DJ LeMahieu 2B (NYY)

• Age: 31
• 2019 Average WAR: 5.4
• 2019 DRC+: 128
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 9.4
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 3.3

So much for LeMahieu being a product of Coors Field, eh? LeMahieu was a certified beast in his first year in pinstripes as he enjoyed a career-best season by hitting .327/.375/.518 and showing off his usual plus defense (6 OOA). LeMahieu seemingly earned all of his production, producing an expected batting average in the top 1 percentile while boasting a career-high 91.9 mph average exit velocity. He should continue producing again next year and is one of the main reasons why the Yankees look like legitimate World Series contenders in 2020.

48. Zack Greinke SP (HOU)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 36
• 2019 Average WAR: 5.56
• 2019 SIERA: 3.96
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 13.1
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 2.8

Greinke has continued to defy the normal age curve for pitchers and just churned out another strong season at age 35. Greinke posted his best ERA- (66) since his utterly dominant 2015 campaign with the Dodgers (44) while throwing 200+ innings again. Greinke decided to not walk anybody last year, too, walking a career-low 3.7 percent of hitters while maintaining a strong 23.1 percent strikeout rate. Father Time could come knocking at any time for Greinke but he was as dominant as ever in 2019 and should produce again in 2020.

47. Anthony Rizzo 1B (CHC)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 30
• 2019 Average WAR: 3.86
• 2019 DRC+: 135
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 10.9
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 4 fWAR

Rizzo has been utterly consistent since his breakout 2014 season, ranging between a 126 and 151 DRC+ in every season while averaging 152 games a season. Rizzo’s ability to slug (29.8 HR per season since 2014), get on base (career .373 OBP) and simply stay healthy has led him to being one of baseball’s most consistent day-to-day players. At 30 years old, Rizzo should continue bashing and producing 3/4-win seasons over the next handful of seasons.

46. Giancarlo Stanton OF/DH (NYY)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 30
• 2019 Average WAR: 0.2
• 2019 DRC+: 87
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 12
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.3

Recency bias may lead to people forgetting the fact that Stanton is still an extremely talented player capable of bashing baseballs on par with the elite hitters in baseball. Injuries completely derailed Stanton’s 2019 season as he played in a mere 18 games. Still, Stanton is just two years removed from a strong 2018 season (117 DRC+) and three years removed from his monster 2017 campaign (155 DRC+ and 59 home runs). There are plenty of questions surrounding Stanton but he’s still capable of reaching an elite offensive level albeit less likely than it was a few years ago.

45. Matt Olson 1B (OAK)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 26
• 2019 Average WAR: 4.36
• 2019 DRC+: 134
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 9.5
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 3.5 fWAR

Olson is criminally underrated as a guy who hits the absolute snot out of baseballs (94th percentile in exit velocity last year) and is the premier defender at the position (97th percentile in OOA). Like many of his other Oakland counterparts, Olson tends to fly under the radar a bit but he’s starting to make a name for himself based on his strong track record. Another big season could catapult himself into the conversation for the best first baseman in baseball.

44. Jack Flaherty (STL)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 24
• 2019 Average WAR: 5.93
• 2019 SIERA: 3.68
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 7
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.1

Flaherty really blossomed in his second full big league season, posting an impressive 65 ERA- in 196 1/3 innings, including an incredible 0.91 ERA in the second half. Flaherty’s peripherals backed up his strong ERA, namely his 29.2 percent strikeout rate and his .278 xWOBA. Flaherty pairs his mid-90’s fastball with a pair of elite secondary pitches (both his curve and slider generated a 40+ percent whiff rate last year) and showcases an ability to limit hard contact (86.1 percent average exit velocity against in 2019). If Flaherty repeats his strong 2019 season in 2020, he will fly up this list and be viewed as one of the elite starters in baseball.

43. Trea Turner SS (WAS)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 26
• 2019 Average WAR: 3.3
• 2019 DRC+: 108
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 11.1
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.1

Turner is one of the game’s premier speedsters who is able to impact the game significantly on the bases (28.2 base running runs), handle shortstop well (3.5 average OOA each of the last three years) and produce at an above-average clip with the bat (career 108 DRC+). Injuries have limited him in two of his last three seasons but he’s established himself as a strong 3-4 win player who may have more in the tank if he can stay healthy. This is a quality player who is still only 26 years old and should continue producing as one of baseball’s best shortstops in the foreseeable future.

42. Max Muncy 1B (LAD)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 29
• 2019 Average WAR: 5.2
• 2019 DRC+: 131
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 9.8
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 2.7 fWAR

Muncy has been an absolute stud in his two seasons in Los Angeles, posting a superb .256/.381/.545 line in that span and producing as one of baseball’s top first basemen in that time. Muncy has flashed elite plate discipline (15.8 percent walk rate the last two years) and knows exactly what he’s doing at the plate, playing to his strengths by pulling tons of baseballs in the air with authority. Muncy’s underlying numbers (xWOBA and xWOBACON both in top 8 percentile last year) show a guy whose earned all of his production and his useful defense at multiple positions gives him the flexibility the Dodgers love. Muncy is a star and should continue raking in 2020.

41. Corey Seager SS (LAD)

• 2020 Opening Day Age: 25
• 2019 Average WAR: 3.46
• 2019 DRC+: 106
• 2017-2019 fWAR: 9.8
• 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.3 fWAR

In his first year back from Tommy John Surgery that knocked him out most of the 2018 season, Seager was plenty productive but his offensive level (106 DRC+) was not quite as high as it was previously. Seager simply wasn’t barreling up baseballs consistently (career lows in barrel percent, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage), which led to a .332 xWOBA that was significantly lower than his career .370 mark. Luckily, Seager made up for it some by having a strong defensive season (5 Outs Above Average) and still producing as an above-average regular. Seager is still so young and has such a solid track record that a rebound is certainly possible next year but the down offensive year does add some questions for the future.