With the completion of the Super Bowl and the arrival of pitchers and catchers to spring training this week, we’re inching closer to the start of the 2023 MLB season.
As the season approaches, I have embarked on several exercises in preparation for the upcoming season. Most recently, I finished a 10-part series that ranked my top 50 players heading into the 2023 season, which you can find here. My next exercise led me here today, which was finding 10 breakout players for the upcoming season. To differentiate from other breakout player articles that have surfaced in recent weeks, I wanted to look a little deeper and beyond some of the potentially obvious breakout selections. To do so, I did not select any players who have reached at least two Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) in any season nor did I select any players who were consensus top-25 prospects either last season or this season. By doing so, I feel like I’ve at least avoided the “no duh” breakout picks and discovered some players who did enough to warrant the potential breakout label.
This exercise involved looking at a combination of previous on-field performance, data-driven underlying performance, and scouting and projection. I found some players who have been in the league since the 2019 season and some players who just debuted late last season. I sought to find five hitters and five pitchers and that’s exactly what I did in this exercise. Below each player is a detailed description of their story to date and some of the reasons why I believe they are all potential breakout picks for the 2023 MLB season.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B (Colorado Rockies)
Now fully entrenched as the everyday second baseman in Colorado, Brendan Rodgers has settled in as a solid, low-end MLB regular. Long viewed as the heir shortstop replacement for Trevor Story and the latest of many great Rockies shortstops, Rodgers’s journey was both longer than expected and saw him move to second base in the process. Rodgers did win a gold glove at second base in 2022 but many are likely underwhelmed by his 1.7 fWAR and .733 OPS while playing half of his games at Coors Field. I think there’s a lot more in the tank, though, and some signs of a huge breakout are lurking in his underlying profile.
At the plate in 2022, Rodgers posted a career-best 7.2 barrel percentage, 7.9 walk percentage, and 17.4 strikeout percentage. That 0.46 BB/K rate doubled his 2021 rate and showcases the strides he’s made as a complete hitter in recent years. The changes were obvious, as Rodgers shaved both his swing and chase percentages while whiffing at a career-low rate. With the plate discipline improvements and thump in his bat, Rodgers could take a step forward as a 110 OPS+ type of bat. Defensively, Rodgers made such drastic improvements that he went from solidly below average to one of the best defensive players in one offseason. His 22 Defensive Runs Saved trailed only Ke’Bryan Hayes (24). With the strong defensive skills and big changes he made at the plate, Rodgers is poised for a huge breakout season in 2023. A 4-win and 110 OPS+ type of season would not surprise me in the slightest.
Ken Waldichuk, LHP (Oakland Athletics)
Ken Waldichuk was the top prospect in the trade that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees. Waldichuk is just one of many new talented prospects to enter the Athletics organization during this all-out teardown of the MLB roster. While there are many new talented additions to the Oakland organization, I think Waldichuk has a good chance to become the best player on the Athletics roster as soon as 2023. Waldichuk is a huge, six-foot-four-inch left-hander who possesses three legitimately good big-league pitches and potentially league-average command. Waldichuk more than held his own in his 2022 MLB debut, posting a 4.93 ERA with an average strikeout rate (22.6 percent) and above-average walk rate (6.8 percent) in seven starts. Waldichuk will have ample opportunity to build upon his debut in 2023, as Oakland could very well have the worst starting rotation in the majors.
Waldichuk has a tantalizing starter’s package, one that features a trio of plus MLB pitches (fastball, slider, change-up), potentially league-average command, and some quirky deception that adds to his profile. In his professional career (MLB included), Waldichuk has shown the ability to locate a 93-97 mph fastball up in the zone, a big-breaking low-80s slider down-and-glove-side, and a superb change-up down-and-arm-side. The package of his three plus pitches and useful command is a rarity among a tall, young left-handed starting pitcher. If it’s not already obvious, I’m incredibly bullish on Waldichuk’s long-term outlook and I think he’ll be a positive for the increasingly depressing Oakland organization. I expect 100-plus innings of mid-rotation production in 2023 with the chance of Waldichuk taking another level if there’s any command improvement.
Bryan De La Cruz, OF (Miami Marlins)
I’m hardly the only person who is expecting a breakout 2023 season for Bryan De La Cruz; he was listed as a breakout candidate by MLB Trade Rumors this past October. De La Cruz, a former Astros prospect who was acquired by the Marlins in the 2021 Yimi García trade, has already shown signs of being a legitimate big leaguer. Across roughly a full season of MLB action (574 plate appearances) with the Marlins, De La Cruz has racked up 1.7 fWAR thanks to his above-average 106 OPS+. De La Cruz has shown a real talent for high-quality contact, evidenced by his 84th-percentile barrel rate in the 2022 season. De La Cruz’s .313 wOBA and .432 slugging percentage in 2022 already make him a worthwhile starter in Miami but there’s even more under the hood to suggest that better results may be coming. Only two qualified hitters had a larger negative gap between their expected wOBA (.355) and wOBA (.313) than De La Cruz in 2022. That .355 xwOBA placed him 25th among 252 qualified hitters and sandwiched him between Byron Buxton and Pete Alonso.
De La Cruz has shown a real knack for crushing baseballs and could be a legitimate 120 OPS+ or better bat in 2023. He’s not without his risk, as he’s a free swinger with a below-average walk rate (6.4 percent) and strikeout rate (24.9 percent) so far in his career. Add in his below-average defense by most measures and there is a limit on his ceiling. But if De La Cruz is crushing baseballs the way he did in 2022, there’s a potential 25+ home run season in him in 2023, which would be a welcomed addition to a power-starved Marlins offense. His hot finish to the 2022 season (1.137 OPS in September/October) might signal that the breakout has already begun and may continue into this 2023 season.
Aaron Ashby, LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Aaron Ashby owns a career 4.47 ERA across his first two MLB seasons, has walked nearly 10 percent of hitters, and was just diagnosed with shoulder fatigue that will put him behind in spring training. Why the love for an Ashby breakout, then? The short summary is Ashby will be entering his age-25 season, possesses a legitimate four-pitch mix with swing-and-miss stuff, and has generated groundballs nearly 60 percent of the time. Ashby’s stuff and arsenal are legitimately good; he owns a mid-90s sinker, a killer slider (41.1 percent whiff rate in 2022), and a curveball and change-up that both feature above-average drop and break. The combination of stuff, which got even better in 2022, and the elite groundball generation is pretty rare. Only two pitchers have a strikeout rate north of 27 percent and a groundball rate above 50 percent since 2021 (minimum 130 innings): Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Ashby.
Ashby’s control and command are, put simply, not great at present. There has always been relief risk due to his questionable control and command. It’s also, however, possible for Ashby to make the high-strikeout, high-walk profile work in the rotation. Over the last two seasons, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Cristian Javier, Blake Snell, and fellow teammate Freddy Peralta have succeeded with strikeout rates near 30 percent and walk rates near 10 percent. Ashby’s great stuff and elite groundball production could make him a very strong starter, albeit one who may be both frustrating and inefficient at times. The fact that he’s pitching for one of the strongest pitching development teams in Milwaukee only furthers his chances of becoming a legitimate big-league starter.
Sam Hilliard, OF (Atlanta Braves)
Sam Hilliard looks like your classic change-of-scenery, post-hype sleeper who could play a real role for one of the best teams in the majors. Hilliard showed promise in an 87-plate appearance debut in the 2019 season when he hit .273/.356/.649, which was good for a 138 OPS+ even with the aid of the juiced baseball and Coors Field. Things went downhill for Hilliard in the rest of his Rockies tenure, with the 2022 season being bad enough (48 OPS+) to lead to his eventual trade to the Braves early in the offseason. While one might be pessimistic about a Colorado hitter posting a .264 slugging percentage and 28.5 strikeout percentage like he did last year, there’s enough going on under the surface that there’s hope he can tap into his potential. Ending up in Atlanta, which is one of the best-run organizations and conveniently has a potential opening in left field, is a perfect outcome for Hilliard.
There are two reasons for optimism with Hilliard; he hits the crap out of the baseball and he walks a healthy amount, two good ingredients for MLB success. Hilliard owns a strong 11.8 percent barrel rate in his career and his 115.1 mph maximum exit velocity in 2022 placed him in the 97th percentile. Hilliard has walked in 10 percent of his career plate appearances and posted a career-best 11.5 percent walk rate in 2022. In addition to his power/plate discipline combo, Hilliard might benefit greatly from the shift ban in 2023; as evidenced by Alex Eisert at Fangraphs, Hilliard made a conscious decision to go against the shift in 2023 which had negative consequences. If Hilliard and the Braves embrace his strong pull-side power and plate discipline, it’s not hard to envision Hilliard tapping into his potential and being a perfectly useful everyday starter. With some classic Braves player development magic, there could be even more in the tank for Hilliard.
Tylor Megill, RHP (New York Mets)
The Mets went bonkers this past offseason to both retain and acquire talent for an already-strong roster that won 101 games in 2022. I think it’s a club that has a real shot to lead the majors in wins and possibly win a World Series but if there’s one downside, it’s an older rotation with an average age of nearly 36 years old. Luckily, the Mets have stockpiled some serious rotation depth, which includes Tylor Megill, someone who has already shown signs of a mini breakout. After a fairly promising rookie 2021 debut (3.84 xERA and 0.6 fWAR in 16 starts), Megill had a dominant 5-start stretch (1.93 ERA and 0.8 fWAR) to begin the 2022 season, which included Megill’s role in the Mets combined no-hitter against the Phillies in late April. While a 28-inning sample was small, Megill was showing above-average command of a strong pitch mix that included a mid-90s heater and nasty slider. Things went downhill after that, however, as Megill would miss three months due to a shoulder strain and post a 9.78 ERA in his remaining 10 outings.
Megill is still certainly unknown, as he has a limited track record, a fairly serious recent shoulder injury, and has dealt with some hard contact against him in his MLB career. He’s also, however, a 27-year-old who has both an above-average strikeout rate (25.9 percent) and walk rate (6.9 percent) in his career, with the stuff and size to signal that more could be coming. It’s not hard to dream of a six-foot, seven-inch pitcher with strike-throwing abilities, a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a mid-80s slider with above-average drop, and an upper-80s change-up with above-average break. Given the age and subsequent risk of the Mets rotation, Megill will almost certainly be relied upon in 2023. The question is whether he can take these strong tools and turn them into actual production. I’m banking on him doing so and playing a vital role for one of the best teams in baseball.
Matt Vierling, IF/OF (Detroit Tigers)
A lot has gone wrong for the Tigers in the last half-decade, especially in the past few years, but I think the trade of Gregory Soto that landed them Matt Vierling could be a legitimately good move for the organization. Vierling was a top-5-ish prospect in the Phillies system, thanks to his above-average contact skills, strong contact authority, and multi-position versatility. Vierling had a strong 77-plate appearance MLB debut in the 2021 season when he hit .324/.364/.479 with a 126 OPS+. Fueled by an unsustainable .420 BABIP in 2021, that number dropped a whopping 130 points in 2022, which led to a less spectacular .246/.297/.351 with an 83 OPS+. What that offensive drop-off doesn’t show, however, is that Vierling barreled more baseballs (up 1.2 percent), shaved his strikeout rate by 6.4 percent, and upped his walk rate by 1.2 percent. Due to these changes, Vierling not only had a similar xwOBA in 2022 (up two points from .325 to .327) but he also made meaningful strides with his plate discipline.
Vierling does a lot of things well that can make him a legitimate big leaguer. He consistently hits baseballs hard (85th percentile hard-hit rate in 2022), makes a lot of contact (80th percentile whiff rate), possesses elite speed (97th percentile sprint speed), and has played six positions in his MLB career. I think there’s a scenario where Vierling settles in as a 2-2.5-win player who posts an above-average batting line and crushes lefties while playing 120-ish games all over the place. It’s not a sexy breakout but I think Vierling will prove his worth and be a welcomed, positive addition to a Tigers organization that needs some young talent to break out.
Kyle Bradish, RHP (Baltimore Orioles)
Kyle Bradish might never develop enough command or efficiency to be anything more than a five-and-dive, high-variance fourth starter. He does, however, possess such good stuff that he might make this volatile profile work as a starting pitcher and ride his strong pitch mix to an even higher level. Acquired in the 2019 trade that sent Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish was one of four pitchers sent to the Orioles and he looks like the best of that bunch in 2023. Bradish spent two years in the minors with the Orioles before debuting in 2023 when he pitched to the clip of a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts (117 2/3 innings). Bradish’s production largely matched his minor-league profile and further illustrated the issues he has; he walked too many hitters (9 percent) and his shaky command led to a below-average 21.8 strikeout percentage. I think there’s a lot of untapped potential, however, mainly due to Bradish’s extremely strong pitch mix of potential swing-and-miss stuff.
Baseball Savant has a neat tool that compares pitchers based on their velocity and movement. The top two comparisons for Bradish’s 2022 season are uninspiring: Mitch White and Brad Keller are fine backend or depth starters with good stuff and movement but possess poor command. The next three comparable pitchers based on velocity and movement, however, are Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, and Drew Rasmussen. Again, this is strictly based on velocity and movement and doesn’t include Bradish’s poor at-present command. What this does show is Bradish possesses top-shelf stuff that could make him a high-quality starter with some command improvements. With a 93-97 mph, high-spin fastball, a superb slider with elite movement, and a curveball with above-average drop and velocity, there’s a lot to dream about here. I think he can and will need to take a step forward for a burgeoning Orioles roster that need some pitchers to take a step forward.
Michael Massey, 2B (Kansas City Royals)
In the aftermath of the Aldaberto Mondesí trade to the Red Sox, Michael Massey is the benefactor as someone who could get everyday reps at second base for the Royals in 2023. After torching both Double-A and Triple-A to the tune of a .312/.371/.532 clip, Massey held his own in a 52-game MLB sample, posting a .243/.307/.376 line and 93 OPS+. What that line doesn’t tell you, however, is that Massey crushed a lot of baseballs and was unlucky based on some of his underlying numbers. Among the 497 hitters who put at least 50 balls in play, Massey’s 8.8 percent barrel rate trailed only 22 players and was tied with hitters such as Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. Among that same group of hitters, only 40 players had a larger negative gap between their xwOBA (.332) and wOBA (.302). Based on his quality of contact, Massey had an expected .450 slugging percentage rather than his actual .376 slugging percentage. Based on his minor league track record and the quality of contact he showed in his MLB debut, it’s clear that Massey has some good pop, especially at second base.
Massey’s approach at the plate does present risk, as he’s both swing-happy (54.5 percent in 2022) and has a good amount of swing-and-miss in his game (27.8 whiff percentage). He’s also limited defensively at second base and hasn’t really shown any positional versatility. Massey’s overall ceiling is limited due to these deficiencies but he could very well pop 20-25 home runs as a second baseman. Massey could resemble something like an early-career Rougned Odor, a second baseman who hovers around a .300 OBP with average defense but creates value with pull-happy power to produce 20+ home runs.
Ryne Nelson, RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
The Diamondbacks have slowly built up a strong young core and a farm system that should continue providing MLB talent over the next half-decade. Included in that young core is Ryne Nelson, a 25-year-old right-hander with big stuff that had a strong three-start sample (1.47 ERA in 18 1/3 innings) to begin his MLB career in 2022. Long-viewed as a likely reliever in the majors due to his profile, Nelson did nothing but produce in the minor leagues as a starter and is a likely lock for the Diamondbacks’ 2023 rotation. Nelson is a fastball-heavy pitcher, primarily using a 93-97 mph four-seam fastball roughly two-thirds of the time in the upper quadrant of the strike. There’s good reason for Nelson to rely so heavily on this pitch up in the zone; with good velocity and high active spin percentage, Nelson’s fastball works well up in the zone because it drops less than the average fastball. Nelson mixes in a duo of breaking balls (slider and curveball) with strong characteristics and a change-up that could potentially be a useful fourth pitch. It’s a strong pitch mix and Nelson has slowly improved his command of it over the last few years.
It’s a bit hard to project Nelson as his profile as a starting pitcher is quirky. Nelson will likely throw his fastball two-thirds of the time and, because of its location up in the zone, post extremely low ground-ball rates like he did in the minor leagues. The list of successful starting pitchers in 2022 with heavy elevated fastball usage and very few ground balls was essentially Cristian Javier, Carlos Rodón, and Joe Ryan. Nelson could very well make it in a quasi-Cristian Javier profile (their pitch mixes and approaches are strikingly similar) but it’s not a common recipe for success in the majors. I’m fascinated to see what Nelson does because it’s an uncommon profile yet I think it’s one that’s going to work quite well. I’m taking the over on all of Nelson’s projections and see a guy who can potentially settle in as a strong mid-rotation starter because of his strong fastball and its consistent command up in the zone.
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